Should You Sell Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) On Account Of Its P/E Multiple?

in VALUATION MULTIPLES by

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) trades at a P/E multiple of 19.8x, which is lower than the Financials sector median of 19.9x. While this makes CMA appear like a stock to add to your portfolio, you might change your mind after gaining a better understanding of the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. In this article, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.


Understanding Valuation Multiples and the P/E Ratio

A multiples valuation, also known as a comparable companies analysis, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking the subject’s financial performance against similar public companies (peer group). We can infer if a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation multiples.

P/E Multiple is a valuation ratio that indicates the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay for one share of a company:

P/E Multiple = Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share

The P/E ratio is not meant to be viewed in isolation and is only useful when comparing it to other similar companies. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different. I compare Comerica’s P/E multiple to those of KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), Citizens Financial Group, Inc.(NYSE: CFG), M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) and FIRST REPUBLIC BANK (NYSE: FRC) in the chart below.

CMA P/E Ratio vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: P/E Multiples

Since Comerica’s P/E of 19.8x is higher than the median of its peers (17.9x), it means that investors are paying more than they should for each dollar of CMA’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that CMA represents an overvalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s P/E Multiple Model calculates a fair value of roughly $88.50 per share which implies approximately 8.5% downside.

CMA P/E Valuation Calculation

Note that the selected multiple of 18.1x in the analysis above was determined by averaging Comerica’s current P/E multiple with its peer group.


Understanding the P/E Ratio’s Limitations

Before jumping to the conclusion that Comerica should be banished from your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to Comerica, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in P/E ratios could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare Comerica with lower growth companies, then its P/E multiple would naturally be higher than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

source: P/E model

Now if the second assumption does not hold true, Comerica’s higher multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being undervalued by the market.


What This Means For Investors

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current overvaluation could signal a potential selling opportunity to reduce your exposure to CMA. However, keep in mind the limitations of the P/E ratio when making investment decisions. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Comerica by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of Comerica have based on Wall Street’s consensus price target? Take a look at our analyst upside data explorer that compares the company’s upside relative to its peers.

Risk Metrics: how is Comerica’s financial health? Find out by viewing our financial leverage data metric which plots the dollars in total assets for each dollar of common equity over time.

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient over time? Find out by analyzing the company’s asset turnover ratio which measures the dollars in revenue a company generates per dollar of assets.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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