Comparable Companies Analysis Suggests You Should Sell M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB)

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M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) trades at a P/E multiple of 19.9x, which is lower than the Financials sector median of 20.1x. While this makes MTB appear like a stock to add to your portfolio, you might change your mind after gaining a better understanding of the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. In this article, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.


Understanding Valuation Multiples and the P/E Ratio

A multiples valuation, also known as a comparable companies analysis, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking the subject’s financial performance against similar public companies (peer group). We can infer if a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation multiples.

P/E Multiple is a valuation ratio that indicates the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay for one share of a company:

P/E Multiple = Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share

The P/E ratio is not meant to be viewed in isolation and is only useful when comparing it to other similar companies. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different. I compare M&T Bank’s P/E multiple to those of Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: CFG), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE: RF) and SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE: STI) in the chart below.

MTB P/E Ratio vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: P/E Multiples

Since M&T Bank’s P/E of 19.9x is higher than the median of its peers (16.2x), it means that investors are paying more than they should for each dollar of MTB’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that MTB represents an overvalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s P/E Multiple Model calculates a fair value of roughly $151.00 per share which implies approximately 17.0% downside.

MTB P/E Valuation Calculation

Note that the selected multiple of 16.5x in the analysis above was determined by averaging M&T Bank’s current P/E multiple with its peer group.


Understanding the P/E Ratio’s Limitations

Before jumping to the conclusion that M&T Bank should be banished from your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to M&T Bank, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in P/E ratios could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare M&T Bank with lower growth companies, then its P/E multiple would naturally be higher than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

MTB Net Income Growth and Margins vs Peers Tablesource: P/E model

Now if the second assumption does not hold true, M&T Bank’s higher multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being undervalued by the market.


What This Means For Investors

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current overvaluation could signal a potential selling opportunity to reduce your exposure to MTB. However, keep in mind the limitations of the P/E ratio when making investment decisions. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on M&T Bank by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of M&T Bank have based on the Ben Graham Formula? Take a look at our Ben Graham Formula data explorer which also compares the company’s upside to its peers.

Risk Metrics: what is M&T Bank’s Altman Z score? It’s a famous formula used to predict the probability that a firm will go into bankruptcy within two years. View the company’s Altman Z score here.

Efficiency Metrics: how much free cash flow does M&T Bank generate as a percentage of total sales? Has it been increasing or decreasing over time? Review the firm’s free cash flow margin here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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