Is Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE: TOL) A Buy At This P/E Multiple?

in VALUATION MULTIPLES by

Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE: TOL) shares currently trade at 10.4x trailing earnings which is lower than the Consumer Discretionary sector median of 18.9x. While this makes TOL look like a stock to add to your portfolio, equity investors might change their mind after taking a closer look at the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. In this article, I define how to calculate a P/E multiple and what to keep an eye out for when applying it in a comparable companies analysis.


Toll Comparable Companies Analysis

A comparable companies analysis, also known as a multiples valuation, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking its financial performance against similar public companies or peers. We can conclude if a company looks undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation ratios.

P/E Ratio is a valuation metric that indicates the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay for one share of a company:

P/E Ratio = Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share

The P/E ratio by itself is not very helpful at all. It is only useful when comparing it to other companies that are considered similar to the subject company. The basic idea is that companies with similar characteristics should trade at similar multiples, all other things being equal. Therefore, we can come to a conclusion about the stock if the ratios are different. In the chart below, I compare Toll’s P/E ratio to its peer group that includes KB Home (NYSE: KBH), PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR) and Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN.B).

TOL P/E Ratio vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: P/E Multiples

Since Toll’s P/E of 10.4x is lower than the median of its peers (19.2x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of TOL’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that TOL represents an undervalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s P/E Multiple Model calculates a fair value of roughly $65.00 per share which implies around 55.5% upside.

TOL P/E Valuation Calculation

I selected a fair multiple of 16.2x in my analysis by averaging Toll’s current P/E ratio with its peer group.


Are Peers Really Comparable?

Before concluding that Toll should be added to your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to Toll, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in P/E ratios could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare Toll with higher growth companies, then its P/E multiple would naturally be lower than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

TOL Net Income Growth and Margins vs Peers Tablesource: P/E model

However, if the second assumption does not hold true, Toll’s lower multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.


How This Impacts Shareholders

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current undervaluation could signal a potential buying opportunity to increase your position in TOL. However, keep in mind the limitations of the P/E ratio when making investment decisions. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Toll by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of Toll have based on Wall Street’s consensus price target? Take a look at our analyst upside data explorer that compares the company’s upside relative to its peers.

Risk Metrics: how is Toll’s financial health? Find out by viewing our financial leverage data metric which plots the dollars in total assets for each dollar of common equity over time.

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient over time? Find out by analyzing the company’s asset turnover ratio which measures the dollars in revenue a company generates per dollar of assets.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial technology, analyzing market trends. Brian is a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to research stock fundamentals. Brian’s background is in physics & computer science and previously worked as a software engineer at GE Healthcare. He enjoys applying his expertise in technology to help find market trends that impact investors. Brian can be reached at brian@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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