Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE: TM) beat the Consumer Discretionary sector by 3.9% as it relates to ROE, producing a healthy 12.7% compared to the sector’s 8.8%. But what is more interesting is whether Toyota will continue to achieve above average returns moving forward. The DuPont analysis is a useful tool that may help us determine this. In my analysis below, I’ll use the DuPont model to reveal what’s really driving the company’s healthy ROE.
Toyota’s ROE Trends
Return on equity or ROE represents the percentage return a company generates on the money shareholders have invested.
ROE = Net Income To Common / Average Total Common Equity
In general, a higher return on equity suggests management is utilizing the capital invested by shareholders efficiently. However, it is important to note that ROE can be impacted by management’s financing decisions such as the deployment of leverage.
Toyota’s recent ROE trends are illustrated in the chart below.
source: finbox.io data explorer – ROE
The return on equity of Toyota has generally been declining over the last few years. ROE decreased from 12.6% to 12.5% in fiscal year 2016, decreased to 10.8% in 2017 and increased to 12.7% as of LTM Dec’17. So what’s causing the general decline?
What’s Causing Toyota’s Declining Return On Equity
A less used approach although being much more intuitive, the DuPont formula is another way to calculate a company’s ROE. It is defined as:
ROE = Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover * Equity Multiplier
Created by the DuPont Corporation in the 1920s, the analysis is a useful tool that helps determine what’s responsible for changes in a company’s ROE. It highlights that a firm’s ROE is affected by three things: profit margin, asset turnover, and its equity multiplier or financial leverage.
Analyzing changes in these three items over time allows investors to figure out if operating efficiency, asset use efficiency or the use of leverage is what’s causing changes in ROE. Strong companies should have ROE that is increasing because its net profit margin and/or asset turnover is increasing. On the other hand, a company may not be as strong as investors would otherwise think if ROE is increasing from the use of leverage or debt.
So let’s take a closer look at what’s causing Toyota’s declining returns.
Toyota’s Net Profit Margin Trends
It appears that the net profit margin of Toyota has generally been increasing over the last few years. Margins increased from 8.0% to 8.1% in fiscal year 2016, decreased to 6.6% in 2017 and increased to 8.2% as of LTM Dec’17.
As a result, the company’s declining ROE is not due to its net profit margin performance which has generally been increasing. Could the poor ROE performance be a result of declining efficiency?
Toyota’s Asset Turnover Trends
It appears that asset turnover of Toyota has generally been declining over the last few years. Turnover decreased from 0.58x to 0.57x in fiscal year 2016, increased to 0.61x in 2017 and decreased to 0.58x as of LTM Dec’17.
source: data explorer – asset turnover
Therefore, the company’s decreasing asset turnover ratio helps explain, at least partially, why ROE is also decreasing.
Finally, the DuPont constituents that make up Toyota’s ROE are shown in the table below. Note that the table also compares Toyota to a peer group that includes Honda Motor Company, Ltd.(NYSE: HMC), Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NYSE: NSANY), Volkswagen AG (NYSE: VLKAY) and General Motors Company (NYSE: GM).
source: finbox.io’s DuPont model
In conclusion, the DuPont analysis has helped us better understand that Toyota’s general decline in return on equity is the result of an improving net profit margin, a declining asset turnover ratio and declining leverage. Therefore when looking at the core operations of the business, Toyota shareholders do not need to be too concerned due to the company’s general improvement in profitability along with a general decline in operational efficiency and declining leverage.
The DuPont approach is a helpful tool when analyzing how well management is utilizing shareholder capital. However, it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. For example, how do the company’s ROE trends compare to its peers or sector? How about in absolute returns? I recommend that investors continue to research Toyota to gain a better understanding of its fundamentals before making an investment decision.
As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.