Tempted To Buy Citrix Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: CTXS) At Its Current EV / EBITDA Ratio?

in VALUATION MULTIPLES by

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) shares currently trade at 18.0x its trailing EBITDA which is higher than the Information Technology sector median of 16.1x. While this makes CTXS look like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, equity investors might change their mind after taking a closer look at the assumptions behind the EV / EBITDA ratio. In this article, I define how to calculate an EBITDA Multiple and what to keep an eye out for when applying it in a comparable companies analysis.


Citrix Comparable Companies Analysis

A comparable companies analysis, also known as a multiples valuation, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking its financial performance against similar public companies or peers. We can conclude if a company looks undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation ratios.

Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA Multiple, also known as the EV / EBITDA ratio or an EBITDA Multiple, measures the dollars in Enterprise Value for each dollar of EBITDA. To determine if a company is expensive, it’s far more useful to compare EV / EBITDA multiples than the absolute stock price. The general formula behind an EBITDA Multiples valuation model is the following:

Enterprise Value = EBITDA x Selected Multiple

The EV / EBITDA ratio by itself is not very helpful at all. It is only useful when comparing it to other companies that are considered similar to the subject company. The basic idea is that companies with similar characteristics should trade at similar multiples, all other things being equal. Therefore, we can come to a conclusion about the stock if the ratios are different. In the chart below, I compare Citrix’s EV / EBITDA ratio to its peer group that includes Red Hat, Inc.(NYSE: RHT), ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW), Vmware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) and Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: CRM).

CTXS EBITDA Multiple vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: EBITDA Multiples

Since Citrix’s EBITDA multiple of 18.0x is lower than the median of its peers (60.2x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of CTXS’s EBITDA. As such, our analysis shows that CTXS represents an undervalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s EBITDA Multiples Model calculates a fair value of around $185.00 per share which implies roughly 71.0% upside.

CTXS EV / EBITDA Valuation Calculation

I selected a fair multiple of 31.4x in my analysis by averaging Citrix’s current EV / EBITDA ratio with its peer group and sector.


Are Comps Really Comparable?

Before concluding that Citrix should be added to your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to Citrix, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in EBITDA multiples could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare Citrix with higher growth companies, then its EBITDA multiple would naturally be lower than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

CTXS EBITDA Growth and Margins vs Peers Tablesource: EBITDA multiples model

Now if the second assumption does not hold true, Citrix’s lower multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.


How This Impacts Shareholders

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current undervaluation could signal a potential buying opportunity to increase your position in CTXS. However, keep in mind the limitations of an EBITDA multiples valuation when making an investment decision. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Citrix by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: how much upside do shares of Citrix have based on Wall Street’s consensus price target? Take a look at our analyst upside data explorer that compares the company’s upside relative to its peers.

Risk Metrics: how is Citrix’s financial health? Find out by viewing our financial leverage data metric which plots the dollars in total assets for each dollar of common equity over time.

Efficiency Metrics: is management becoming more or less efficient over time? Find out by analyzing the company’s asset turnover ratio which measures the dollars in revenue a company generates per dollar of assets.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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