Should You Buy Colfax Corp (NYSE: CFX) At This EV / EBITDA Ratio?

in VALUATION MULTIPLES by

Colfax Corp (NYSE: CFX) trades at an EBITDA Multiple of 13.3x, which is higher than the Industrials sector median of 11.6x. While this makes CFX appear like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, you might change your mind after gaining a better understanding of the assumptions behind the EV / EBITDA ratio ratio. In this article, I will break down what an EBITDA Multiple is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.


Understanding Valuation Multiples and EV / EBITDA

A multiples valuation, also known as a comparable companies analysis, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking the subject’s financial performance against similar public companies (peer group). We can infer if a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation multiples.

An EBITDA Multiple, also known as Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA), measures the dollars in Enterprise Value for each dollar of EBITDA. To determine if a company is expensive, it’s far more useful to compare EV / EBITDA multiples than the absolute stock price. Furthermore, its key benefit over the P/E multiple is that it’s capital structure-neutral, and, therefore, better at comparing companies with different levels of debt. The general formula behind an EBITDA Multiples valuation model is the following:

Enterprise Value = EBITDA x Selected Multiple

An EBITDA multiple is not meant to be viewed in isolation and is only useful when comparing it to other similar companies. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar EV / EBITDA ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different. I compare Colfax’s EBITDA multiple to those of Flowserve Corporation (NYSE: FLS), IDEX Corporation (NYSE: IEX), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) and Donaldson Company, Inc.(NYSE: DCI) in the chart below.

CFX EBITDA Multiple vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: EBITDA Multiples

Since Colfax’s EBITDA multiple of 13.3x is lower than the median of its peers (14.8x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of CFX’s EBITDA. As such, our analysis shows that CFX represents an undervalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s EBITDA Multiples Model calculates a fair value of roughly $37.00 per share which implies approximately 17.0% upside.

CFX EV / EBITDA Valuation Calculation

Note that the selected multiple of 15.2x in the analysis above was determined by averaging Colfax’s current EBITDA multiple with its peer group and sector.


Understanding the EV / EBITDA Ratio’s Limitations

Before jumping to the conclusion that Colfax should be added to your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to Colfax, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in EBITDA multiples could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare Colfax with higher growth companies, then its EBITDA multiple would naturally be lower than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

CFX EBITDA Growth and Margins vs Peers Tablesource: EBITDA multiples model

Now if the second assumption does not hold true, Colfax’s lower multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being overvalued by the market.


What This Means For Investors

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current undervaluation could signal a potential buying opportunity to increase your position in CFX. However, keep in mind the limitations of an EBITDA multiples valuation when making an investment decision. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Colfax by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: what is Colfax’s price to book ratio and how does it compare to its peers? Analyze Price / Book here.

Risk Metrics: what is Colfax’s CapEx coverage? This is the amount a company outlays for capital assets for each dollar it generates from those investments. View the company’s CapEx coverage here.

Efficiency Metrics: inventory turnover is a ratio that measures the number of times a company’s inventory is sold and replaced over the year. View Colfax’s inventory turnover here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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