Comparable Companies Analysis Suggests You Should Sell State Street Corp (NYSE: STT)

in VALUATION MULTIPLES by

State Street Corp (NYSE: STT) trades at a P/E multiple of 17.1x, which is lower than the Financials sector median of 19.6x. While this makes STT appear like a stock to add to your portfolio, you might change your mind after gaining a better understanding of the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. In this article, I will break down what the P/E ratio is, how to interpret it and what to watch out for.


Understanding Valuation Multiples and the P/E Ratio

A multiples valuation, also known as a comparable companies analysis, determines the value of a subject company by benchmarking the subject’s financial performance against similar public companies (peer group). We can infer if a company is undervalued or overvalued relative to its peers by comparing metrics like growth, profit margin, and valuation multiples.

P/E Multiple is a valuation ratio that indicates the multiple of earnings investors are willing to pay for one share of a company:

P/E Multiple = Stock Price ÷ Earnings Per Share

The P/E ratio is not meant to be viewed in isolation and is only useful when comparing it to other similar companies. Since it is expected that similar companies have similar P/E ratios, we can come to some conclusions about the stock if the ratios are different. I compare State Street’s P/E multiple to those of Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation (The) (NYSE: BK), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE: STI), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) and Ameriprise Financial, Inc.(NYSE: AMP) in the chart below.

STT P/E Ratio vs Peers Chartsource: finbox.io Benchmarks: P/E Multiples

Since State Street’s P/E of 17.1x is higher than the median of its peers (14.2x), it means that investors are paying more than they should for each dollar of STT’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that STT represents an overvalued stock. In fact, finbox.io’s P/E Multiple Modelcalculates a fair value of $87.40 per share which implies -13.1% downside.

STT P/E Valuation Calculation

Note that the selected multiple of 14.8x in the analysis above was determined by averaging State Street’s current P/E multiple with its peer group.


Understanding the P/E Ratio’s Limitations

Before jumping to the conclusion that State Street should be banished from your portfolio, it is important to understand that our conclusion rests on two important assumptions.

(1) the selected peer group actually contains companies that truly are similar to State Street, and

(2) the selected peer group stocks are being fairly valued by the market.

If the first assumption is not accurate, the difference in P/E ratios could be due to a variety of factors. For example, if you accidentally compare State Street with lower growth companies, then its P/E multiple would naturally be higher than its peers since investors reward high growth stocks with a higher price.

STT Net Income Growth and Margins vs Peers Tablesource: P/E model

Now if the second assumption does not hold true, State Street’s higher multiple may be because firms in our peer group are being undervalued by the market.


What This Means For Investors

As a shareholder, you may have already conducted fundamental analysis on the stock so its current overvaluation could signal a potential selling opportunity to reduce your exposure to STT. However, keep in mind the limitations of the P/E ratio when making investment decisions. There are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on State Street by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: what is State Street’s free cash flow yield and how does it compare to its publicly traded peers? This metric measures the amount of free cash flow for each dollar of equity (market capitalization). Analyze the free cash flow yield here.

Risk Metrics: what is State Street’s cash ratio which is used to assess a company’s short-term liquidity. View the company’s cash ratio here.

Efficiency Metrics: return on equity is used to measure the return that a firm generates on the book value of common equity. View State Street’s return on equity here.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: Valuation, financial statement analysis. Matt Hogan is also a co-founder of finbox.io. His expertise is in investment decision making. Prior to finbox.io, Matt worked for an investment banking group providing fairness opinions in connection to stock acquisitions. He spent much of his time building valuation models to help clients determine an asset’s fair value. He believes that these same valuation models should be used by all investors before buying or selling a stock. His work is frequently published at InvestorPlace, Benzinga, ValueWalk, AAII, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and investing.com. Matt can be reached at matt@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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