Time To Sell Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR)?

in INVESTING IDEAS by

Shares of Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) are receiving a lot of investor interest as of late due to the stock’s 21.8% increase over the prior three months. Shareholders are now asking themselves whether the company’s current stock price is reflective of its true value or if shares have even further upside from here.

Let’s take a look at Twitter’s value and outlook based on its most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.


What’s The Opportunity In Twitter?

Twitter appears to be overvalued by -16.5% at the moment, based on 6 separate valuation models. The stock is currently trading at $29.39 on the market compared to our average intrinsic value of $24.54. This means that the buying opportunity has probably disappeared for now.

Twitter Inc Valuation Detail
Analysis Model Fair Value Upside (Downside)
10-yr DCF Revenue Exit $23.80 -19.0%
5-yr DCF Revenue Exit $22.57 -23.2%
Peer Revenue Multiples $17.25 -41.3%
Peer EBITDA Multiples $23.80 -19.0%
10-yr DCF Growth Exit $29.31 -0.3%
5-yr DCF Growth Exit $30.49 3.8%
Average $24.54 -16.5%

Click on any of the analyses above to view the latest model with real-time data.

Furthermore, Twitter’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market as indicated by its low beta of 0.61. If you believe the share price should eventually reach its true value, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon. And once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.


Can We Expect Growth From Twitter?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matters the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price.

Twitter projected revenue chartsource: finbox.io data explorer

Twitter’s revenue growth is expected to average 10.7% over the next five fiscal years, indicating a solid future ahead. Unless expenses grow at the same level, or higher, this top-line growth should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.


What This Means For Investors

Growth investors typically look to invest in companies that are expanding sales, gaining market share and building customer bases. On the other hand, value investors often argue that the most successful investments are in companies that deliver the highest cash flows while trading at the lowest valuation.

But why not put those hands together? A company that has both growth and value characteristics would certainly make the most attractive investment. So what did we find out about Twitter?

Twitter has positioned itself so that double-digit growth appears to be a reasonable assumption for the foreseeable future. However, this growth does not look highly attractive at current trading levels. As such, investors may want to hold off on buying or adding to their TWTR position for the time being.

It is important to note that there are a variety of other fundamental factors that I have not taken into consideration in this article. If you have not done so already, I highly recommend that you complete your research on Twitter by taking a look at the following:

Valuation Metrics: what is Twitter’s short ratio and how does it compare to its publicly traded peers? It represents the percentage of total shares outstanding that is being shorted. View the short ratio here.

Risk Metrics: how much interest coverage does Twitter have? This is a ratio used to assess a firm’s ability to pay interest expenses based on operating profits (EBIT). View the company’s interest coverage here.

Efficiency Metrics: fixed asset turnover is calculated by dividing revenue by average fixed assets. View Twitter’s fixed asset turnover here.


Author: Andy Pai

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions

Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights:

  • Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores.
  • Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets.

Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io.

As of this writing, I did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities and this is not a buy or sell recommendation on any security mentioned.

Expertise: financial modeling, mergers & acquisitions. Andy is also a founder at finbox.io, where he’s focused on building tools that make it faster and easier for investors to do investment research. Andy’s background is in investment banking where he led the analysis on over 50 board advisory engagements involving mergers and acquisitions, fairness opinions and solvency opinions. Some of his board advisory highlights: - Sears Holdings Corp.’s $620 mm spin-off via rights offering of Sears Outlet, Hometown Stores and Sears Hardware Stores. - Cerberus Capital Management’s $3.3 bn acquisition of SUPERVALU Inc.’s New Albertsons, Inc. assets. Andy can be reached at andy@finbox.io or at +1 (516) 778-6257.

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